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| Tuesday, Oct 02, 2012 Many businesses spend their time each fall trying to predict the future. They're diving deep into historical data and trying to overlay that onto their expectations for next year. How many customers will purchase from us again? Which channels require a larger presence? What larger economic factors must we account for? And so on. This process didn’t just exist for annual budgeting, however. The very nature of old media marketing dictated this exercise as much as internal budgeting needs. Old media depends on predicting the future — and largely explains the limited lifespan of the modern CMO. Does this need to be the case? I’d suggest not. And here's why. If you've never heard of “upfronts” before, you’re lucky. The major broadcast TV networks sell huge blocks of advertising time for the current TV season (usually around 75%-80%), well in advance of the actual start of the TV season. This is no trivial exercise. The networks pull down billions of dollars annually. Of course, if the shows those broadcast networks sell fail to hit, the advertiser is out a healthy chunk of change. And the CMO who authorized the buy is out on his ear. Fortunately, digital marketing allows for a more nimble model, one that depends less on predicting the future and much more on how quickly you react to a changing marketplace. Using this model, budgeting digital becomes less a question of how much you’ll spend in any given period and more a function of how effectively you manage your numbers. Instead of planning your budget the traditional way, allocating x percent to tactic A and y percent to tactic B, look instead at allocating budget based on return. What percentage of your bottom line comes from paid search? Then allocate that amount back into the channel. Get 25% of your business from SEO? Then put 25% of your marketing budget back into it. Social not performing as well as you’d like? Reallocate its budget to the channels producing a positive return. Your goal is to make your budgeting and spend more nimble, more easily allocated to the channels producing positive results. For instance, if you're getting $5 in return for every dollar you spend in a given marketing channel, why would you stop spending there at all? Of course, it’s not always easy to move to this model. Here are a couple of tips to keep in mind:
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